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Tajikistan Economy Profile 2019

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Economy - overview

Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. Mineral resources include silver, gold, uranium, antimony, tungsten, and coal. Industry consists mainly of small obsolete factories in food processing and light industry, substantial hydropower facilities, and a large aluminum plant - currently operating well below its capacity. The 1992-97 civil war severely damaged an already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Today, Tajikistan is the poorest among the former Soviet republics. Because less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the predominant crop, Tajikistan imports approximately 70% of its food.

Since the end of the civil war, the country has pursued half-hearted reforms and privatizations in the economic sphere, but its poor business climate remains a hindrance to attracting foreign investment. Some experts estimate the value of narcotics transiting Tajikistan is equivalent to 30%-50% of GDP.

Because of a lack of employment opportunities in Tajikistan, more than one million Tajik citizens work abroad - roughly 90% in Russia - supporting families back home through remittances that in 2017 were equivalent to nearly 35% of GDP. Tajikistan’s large remittances from migrant workers in Russia exposes it to monetary shocks. Tajikistan often delays devaluation of its currency for fear of inflationary pressures on food and other consumables. Recent slowdowns in the Russian and Chinese economies, low commodity prices, and currency fluctuations have hampered economic growth. The dollar value of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan dropped by almost 65% in 2015, and the government spent almost $500 million in 2016 to bail out the country’s still troubled banking sector.

Tajikistan’s growing public debt – currently about 50% of GDP – could result in financial difficulties. Remittances from Russia increased in 2017, however, bolstering the economy somewhat. China owns about 50% of Tajikistan’s outstanding debt. Tajikistan has borrowed heavily to finance investment in the country’s vast hydropower potential. In 2016, Tajikistan contracted with the Italian firm Salini Impregilo to build the Roghun dam over a 13-year period for $3.9 billion. A 2017 Eurobond has largely funded Roghun’s first phase, after which sales from Roghun’s output are expected to fund the rest of its construction. The government has not ruled out issuing another Eurobond to generate auxiliary funding for its second phase.

GDP (purchasing power parity)
$28.43 billion (2017 est.)
$26.55 billion (2016 est.)
$24.83 billion (2015 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars

GDP (official exchange rate)
$7.144 billion (2017 est.)
GDP - real growth rate
7.1% (2017 est.)
6.9% (2016 est.)
6% (2015 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)
$3,200 (2017 est.)
$3,000 (2016 est.)
$2,900 (2015 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars

Gross national saving
24.4% of GDP (2017 est.)
15.4% of GDP (2016 est.)
11.8% of GDP (2015 est.)
GDP - composition, by end use
household consumption: 98.4% (2017 est.)
government consumption: 13.3% (2017 est.)
investment in fixed capital: 11.7% (2017 est.)
investment in inventories: 2.5% (2017 est.)
exports of goods and services: 10.7% (2017 est.)
imports of goods and services: -36.6% (2017 est.)
GDP - composition by sector
agriculture: 28.6% (2017 est.)
industry: 25.5% (2017 est.)
services: 45.9% (2017 est.)
Population below poverty line
31.5% (2016 est.)
Labor force
2.295 million (2016 est.)
Labor force - by occupation
agriculture: 43%
industry: 10.6%
services: 46.4% (2016 est.)
Unemployment rate
2.4% (2016 est.)
2.5% (2015 est.)

note: official rate; actual unemployment is much higher

Unemployment, youth ages 15-24
total: 16.7%
male: 19.2%
female: 13.7% (2009 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage share
lowest 10%: NA (2009 est.)
highest 10%: NA (2009 est.)
Distribution of family income - Gini index
32.6 (2006)
34.7 (1998)
Budget
revenues: 2.269 billion (2017 est.)
expenditures: 2.374 billion (2017 est.)
Taxes and other revenues
31.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)
-1.5% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Public debt
50.4% of GDP (2017 est.)
42% of GDP (2016 est.)
Inflation rate (consumer prices)
7.3% (2017 est.)
5.9% (2016 est.)
Central bank discount rate
16% (20 March 2017)
6.5% (31 December 2012)
Commercial bank prime lending rate
30% (31 December 2017 est.)
24.24% (31 December 2016 est.)
Stock of narrow money
$1.389 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
$1.108 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
Stock of broad money
$1.389 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
$1.108 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
Stock of domestic credit
$1.06 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
$1.711 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
Market value of publicly traded shares

NA

Agriculture - products
cotton, grain, fruits, grapes, vegetables; cattle, sheep, goats
Industries
aluminum, cement, coal, gold, silver, antimony, textile, vegetable oil
Industrial production growth rate
1% (2017 est.)
Current Account Balance
-$35 million (2017 est.)
-$362 million (2016 est.)
Exports
$873.1 million (2017 est.)
$691.1 million (2016 est.)
Exports - commodities
aluminum, electricity, cotton, fruits, vegetable oil, textiles
Exports - partners
Turkey 27.5%, China 17.7%, Russia 13.4%, Switzerland 12.5%, Algeria 8.2%, Iran 7.1% (2017)
Imports
$2.39 billion (2017 est.)
$2.554 billion (2016 est.)
Imports - commodities
petroleum products, aluminum oxide, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs
Imports - partners
Russia 38%, Kazakhstan 19%, China 8.7%, Iran 4.4% (2017)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold
$1.292 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
$652.8 million (31 December 2016 est.)
Debt - external
$5.75 billion (31 December 2017 est.)
$5.495 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - at home
$2.272 billion (31 December 2013 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad
$16.3 billion (31 December 2009)
Exchange rates
Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per US dollar -
8.764 (2017 est.)
7.8358 (2016 est.)
7.8358 (2015 est.)
6.1631 (2014 est.)
4.9348 (2013 est.)
Fiscal year
calendar year

Source: CIA World Factbook
This page was last updated on December 7, 2019

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