Vietnam vs. Malaysia

When Vietnam was reunified in 1975, the country had a youthful age structure and a high fertility rate.  The population growth rate slowed dramatically during the next 25 years, as fertility declined and infant mortality and life expectancy improved.  The country's adoption of a one-or-two-child policy in 1988 led to increased rates of contraception and abortion.  The total fertility rate dropped rapidly from nearly 5 in 1979 to 2.1 or replacement level in 1990, and at 1.8 is below replacement level today.  Fertility is higher in the more rural central highlands and northern uplands, which are inhabited primarily by poorer ethnic minorities, and is lower among the majority Kinh, ethnic Chinese, and a few other ethnic groups, particularly in urban centers.  With more than two-thirds of the population of working age (15-64), Vietnam has the potential to reap a demographic dividend for approximately three decades (between 2010 and 2040).  However, its ability to do so will depend on improving the quality of education and training for its workforce and creating jobs.  The Vietnamese Government is also considering changes to the country's population policy because if the country's fertility rate remains below replacement level, it could lead to a worker shortage in the future.

Vietnam has experienced both internal migration and net emigration, both for humanitarian and economic reasons, for the last several decades.  Internal migration - rural-rural and rural-urban, temporary and permanent - continues to be a means of coping with Vietnam's extreme weather and flooding.  Although Vietnam's population is still mainly rural, increasing numbers of young men and women have been drawn to the country's urban centers where they are more likely to find steady jobs and higher pay in the growing industrial and service sectors.

The aftermath of the Vietnam War in 1975 resulted in an outpouring of approximately 1.6 million Vietnamese refugees over the next two decades.  Between 1975 and 1997, programs such as the Orderly Departure Program and the Comprehensive Plan of Action resettled hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese refugees abroad, including the United States (880,000), China (260,000, mainly ethnic Chinese Hoa), Canada (160,000), Australia (155,000), and European countries (150,000). 

Malaysia's multi-ethnic population consists of the bumiputera - Malays and other indigenous peoples - (62%), ethnic Chinese (21%), ethnic Indians (6%), and foreigners (10%).  The majority of Malaysia's ethnic Chinese and Indians trace their roots to the British colonialists' recruitment of hundreds of thousands of Chinese and Indians as mine and plantation workers between the early-19^th century and the 1930s.  Most Malays have maintained their rural lifestyle, while the entrepreneurial Chinese have achieved greater wealth and economic dominance.  In order to eradicate Malay poverty, the Malaysian Government in 1971 adopted policies that gave preference to the bumiputera in public university admissions, government jobs and contracts, and property ownership.  Affirmative action continues to benefit well-off urban bumiputera but has done little to alleviate poverty for their more numerous rural counterparts.  The policies have pushed ethnic Chinese and Indians to study at private or foreign universities (many do not return) and have created and sustained one of the world's largest civil services, which is 85-90% Malay. 

The country's age structure has changed significantly since the 1960s, as fertility and mortality rates have declined.  Malaysia's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from 5 children per woman in 1970, to 3 in 1998, to 2.1 in 2015 as a result of increased educational attainment and labor participation among women, later marriages, increased use of contraception, and changes in family size preference related to urbanization.  The TFR is higher among Malays, rural residents (who are mainly Malay), the poor, and the less-educated.  Despite the reduced fertility rate, Malaysia's population will continue to grow, albeit at a decreasing rate, for the next few decades because of its large number of reproductive-age women.  The youth population has been shrinking, and the working-age population (15-64 year olds) has been growing steadily.  Malaysia's labor market has successfully absorbed the increasing number of job seekers, leading to sustained economic growth.  However, the favorable age structure is changing, and around 2020, Malaysia will start to become a rapidly aging society.  As the population ages, Malaysia will need to better educate and train its labor force, raise productivity, and continue to increase the number of women workers in order to further develop its economy.

More than 1.8 million Malaysians lived abroad as of 2015, including anywhere from 350,000 to 785,000 workers, more than half of whom have an advanced level of education.  The vast majority of emigrants are ethnic Chinese, seeking better educational and job opportunities abroad because of institutionalized ethnic discrimination favoring the Malays.  The primary destination country is nearby Singapore, followed by Bangladesh and Australia.  Hundreds of thousands of Malaysians also commute across the causeway to Singapore daily for work.

Brain drain is an impediment to Malaysia's goal of becoming a high-income country.  The situation is compounded by a migrant inflow that is composed almost entirely of low-skilled laborers who work mainly in manufacturing, agriculture, and construction.  Officially, Malaysia had about 1.8 million legal foreign workers as of mid-year 2017 - largely from Indonesia, Nepal, the Philippines, and Bangladesh - but as many as 3 to 4 million are estimated to be in the country illegally.  Immigrants outnumber ethnic Indians and could supplant the ethnic Chinese as Malaysia's second largest population group around 2035.