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China vs. Tajikistan

Economy

ChinaTajikistan
Economy - overview

Since the late 1970s, China has moved from a closed, centrally planned system to a more market-oriented one that plays a major global role. China has implemented reforms in a gradualist fashion, resulting in efficiency gains that have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978. Reforms began with the phaseout of collectivized agriculture, and expanded to include the gradual liberalization of prices, fiscal decentralization, increased autonomy for state enterprises, growth of the private sector, development of stock markets and a modern banking system, and opening to foreign trade and investment. China continues to pursue an industrial policy, state support of key sectors, and a restrictive investment regime. From 2013 to 2017, China had one of the fastest growing economies in the world, averaging slightly more than 7% real growth per year. Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis that adjusts for price differences, China in 2017 stood as the largest economy in the world, surpassing the US in 2014 for the first time in modern history. China became the world's largest exporter in 2010, and the largest trading nation in 2013. Still, China's per capita income is below the world average.

In July 2005 moved to an exchange rate system that references a basket of currencies. From mid-2005 to late 2008, the renminbi (RMB) appreciated more than 20% against the US dollar, but the exchange rate remained virtually pegged to the dollar from the onset of the global financial crisis until June 2010, when Beijing announced it would resume a gradual appreciation. From 2013 until early 2015, the renminbi held steady against the dollar, but it depreciated 13% from mid-2015 until end-2016 amid strong capital outflows; in 2017 the RMB resumed appreciating against the dollar - roughly 7% from end-of-2016 to end-of-2017. In 2015, the People's Bank of China announced it would continue to carefully push for full convertibility of the renminbi, after the currency was accepted as part of the IMF's special drawing rights basket. However, since late 2015 the Chinese Government has strengthened capital controls and oversight of overseas investments to better manage the exchange rate and maintain financial stability.

The Chinese Government faces numerous economic challenges including: (a) reducing its high domestic savings rate and correspondingly low domestic household consumption; (b) managing its high corporate debt burden to maintain financial stability; (c) controlling off-balance sheet local government debt used to finance infrastructure stimulus; (d) facilitating higher-wage job opportunities for the aspiring middle class, including rural migrants and college graduates, while maintaining competitiveness; (e) dampening speculative investment in the real estate sector without sharply slowing the economy; (f) reducing industrial overcapacity; and (g) raising productivity growth rates through the more efficient allocation of capital and state-support for innovation. Economic development has progressed further in coastal provinces than in the interior, and by 2016 more than 169.3 million migrant workers and their dependents had relocated to urban areas to find work. One consequence of China's population control policy known as the "one-child policy" - which was relaxed in 2016 to permit all families to have two children - is that China is now one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world. Deterioration in the environment - notably air pollution, soil erosion, and the steady fall of the water table, especially in the North - is another long-term problem. China continues to lose arable land because of erosion and urbanization. The Chinese Government is seeking to add energy production capacity from sources other than coal and oil, focusing on natural gas, nuclear, and clean energy development. In 2016, China ratified the Paris Agreement, a multilateral agreement to combat climate change, and committed to peak its carbon dioxide emissions between 2025 and 2030.

The government's 13th Five-Year Plan, unveiled in March 2016, emphasizes the need to increase innovation and boost domestic consumption to make the economy less dependent on government investment, exports, and heavy industry. However, China has made more progress on subsidizing innovation than rebalancing the economy. Beijing has committed to giving the market a more decisive role in allocating resources, but the Chinese Government's policies continue to favor state-owned enterprises and emphasize stability. Chinese leaders in 2010 pledged to double China's GDP by 2020, and the 13th Five Year Plan includes annual economic growth targets of at least 6.5% through 2020 to achieve that goal. In recent years, China has renewed its support for state-owned enterprises in sectors considered important to "economic security," explicitly looking to foster globally competitive industries. Chinese leaders also have undermined some market-oriented reforms by reaffirming the "dominant" role of the state in the economy, a stance that threatens to discourage private initiative and make the economy less efficient over time. The slight acceleration in economic growth in 2017-the first such uptick since 2010-gives Beijing more latitude to pursue its economic reforms, focusing on financial sector deleveraging and its Supply-Side Structural Reform agenda, first announced in late 2015.

Tajikistan is a poor, mountainous country with an economy dominated by minerals extraction, metals processing, agriculture, and reliance on remittances from citizens working abroad. Mineral resources include silver, gold, uranium, antimony, tungsten, and coal. Industry consists mainly of small obsolete factories in food processing and light industry, substantial hydropower facilities, and a large aluminum plant - currently operating well below its capacity. The 1992-97 civil war severely damaged an already weak economic infrastructure and caused a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural production. Today, Tajikistan is the poorest among the former Soviet republics. Because less than 7% of the land area is arable and cotton is the predominant crop, Tajikistan imports approximately 70% of its food.

Since the end of the civil war, the country has pursued half-hearted reforms and privatizations in the economic sphere, but its poor business climate remains a hindrance to attracting foreign investment. Some experts estimate the value of narcotics transiting Tajikistan is equivalent to 30%-50% of GDP.

Because of a lack of employment opportunities in Tajikistan, more than one million Tajik citizens work abroad - roughly 90% in Russia - supporting families back home through remittances that in 2017 were equivalent to nearly 35% of GDP. Tajikistan's large remittances from migrant workers in Russia exposes it to monetary shocks. Tajikistan often delays devaluation of its currency for fear of inflationary pressures on food and other consumables. Recent slowdowns in the Russian and Chinese economies, low commodity prices, and currency fluctuations have hampered economic growth. The dollar value of remittances from Russia to Tajikistan dropped by almost 65% in 2015, and the government spent almost $500 million in 2016 to bail out the country's still troubled banking sector.

Tajikistan's growing public debt - currently about 50% of GDP - could result in financial difficulties. Remittances from Russia increased in 2017, however, bolstering the economy somewhat. China owns about 50% of Tajikistan's outstanding debt. Tajikistan has borrowed heavily to finance investment in the country's vast hydropower potential. In 2016, Tajikistan contracted with the Italian firm Salini Impregilo to build the Roghun dam over a 13-year period for $3.9 billion. A 2017 Eurobond has largely funded Roghun's first phase, after which sales from Roghun's output are expected to fund the rest of its construction. The government has not ruled out issuing another Eurobond to generate auxiliary funding for its second phase.

GDP (purchasing power parity)$22,526,502,000,000 (2019 est.)

$21,229,363,000,000 (2018 est.)

$19,887,033,000,000 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
$31.502 billion (2019 est.)

$29.438 billion (2018 est.)

$27.435 billion (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars
GDP - real growth rate6.14% (2019 est.)

6.75% (2018 est.)

6.92% (2017 est.)
7.1% (2017 est.)

6.9% (2016 est.)

6% (2015 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)$16,117 (2019 est.)

$15,243 (2018 est.)

$14,344 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
$3,380 (2019 est.)

$3,235 (2018 est.)

$3,090 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars
GDP - composition by sectoragriculture: 7.9% (2017 est.)

industry: 40.5% (2017 est.)

services: 51.6% (2017 est.)
agriculture: 28.6% (2017 est.)

industry: 25.5% (2017 est.)

services: 45.9% (2017 est.)
Population below poverty line0.6% (2019 est.)26.3% (2019 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage sharelowest 10%: 2.1%

highest 10%: 31.4% (2012)

note: data are for urban households only
lowest 10%: NA (2009 est.)

highest 10%: NA (2009 est.)
Inflation rate (consumer prices)2.8% (2019 est.)

2% (2018 est.)

1.5% (2017 est.)
7.7% (2019 est.)

3.9% (2018 est.)

7.3% (2017 est.)
Labor force774.71 million (2019 est.)

note: by the end of 2012, China's working age population (15-64 years) was 1.004 billion
2.295 million (2016 est.)
Labor force - by occupationagriculture: 27.7%

industry: 28.8%

services: 43.5% (2016 est.)
agriculture: 43%

industry: 10.6%

services: 46.4% (2016 est.)
Unemployment rate3.64% (2019 est.)

3.84% (2018 est.)

note: data are for registered urban unemployment, which excludes private enterprises and migrants
2.4% (2016 est.)

2.5% (2015 est.)

note: official rate; actual unemployment is much higher
Distribution of family income - Gini index38.5 (2016 est.)

46.2 (2015 est.)
34 (2015 est.)

34.7 (1998)
Budgetrevenues: 2.553 trillion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 3.008 trillion (2017 est.)
revenues: 2.269 billion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 2.374 billion (2017 est.)
Industriesworld leader in gross value of industrial output; mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizer; consumer products (including footwear, toys, and electronics); food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, railcars and locomotives, ships, aircraft; telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehicles, satellitesaluminum, cement, coal, gold, silver, antimony, textile, vegetable oil
Industrial production growth rate6.1% (2017 est.)1% (2017 est.)
Agriculture - productsmaize, rice, vegetables, wheat, sugar cane, potatoes, cucumbers, tomatoes, watermelons, sweet potatoesmilk, potatoes, wheat, watermelons, onions, tomatoes, vegetables, cotton, carrots/turnips, beef
Exports$2.49 trillion (2018)

$2.216 trillion (2017 est.)

$1.99 trillion (2016 est.)
$873.1 million (2017 est.)

$691.1 million (2016 est.)
Exports - commoditiesbroadcasting equipment, computers, integrated circuits, office machinery and parts, telephones (2019)gold, aluminum, cotton, zinc, antimony, lead (2019)
Exports - partnersUnited States 17%, Hong Kong 10%, Japan 6% (2019)Turkey 24%, Switzerland 22%, Uzbekistan 16%, Kazakhstan 12%, China 10% (2019)
Imports$2.14 trillion (2018)

$1.74 trillion (2017 est.)

$1.501 trillion (2016 est.)
$2.39 billion (2017 est.)

$2.554 billion (2016 est.)
Imports - commoditiescrude petroleum, integrated circuits, iron, natural gas, cars, gold (2019)refined petroleum, wheat, natural gas, bauxite, aircraft (2019)
Imports - partnersSouth Korea 9%, Japan 8%, Australia 7%, Germany 7%, US 7%, Taiwan 6% (2019)China 40%, Russia 38%, Kazakhstan 19%, Uzbekistan 5% (2019)
Debt - external$2,027,950,000,000 (2019 est.)

$1,935,206,000,000 (2018 est.)
$6.47 billion (2019 est.)

$5.849 billion (2018 est.)
Exchange ratesRenminbi yuan (RMB) per US dollar -

6.5374 (2020 est.)

7.0403 (2019 est.)

6.8798 (2018 est.)

6.1434 (2014 est.)

6.1958 (2013 est.)
Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per US dollar -

8.764 (2017 est.)

7.8358 (2016 est.)

7.8358 (2015 est.)

6.1631 (2014 est.)

4.9348 (2013 est.)
Fiscal yearcalendar yearcalendar year
Public debt47% of GDP (2017 est.)

44.2% of GDP (2016 est.)

note: official data; data cover both central and local government debt, including debt officially recognized by China's National Audit Office report in 2011; data exclude policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, and China Asset Management Company debt
50.4% of GDP (2017 est.)

42% of GDP (2016 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold$3.236 trillion (31 December 2017 est.)

$3.098 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.292 billion (31 December 2017 est.)

$652.8 million (31 December 2016 est.)
Current Account Balance$141.335 billion (2019 est.)

$25.499 billion (2018 est.)
-$35 million (2017 est.)

-$362 million (2016 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate)$14,327,359,000,000 (2019 est.)

note: because China's exchange rate is determined by fiat rather than by market forces, the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China's output; GDP at the official exchange rate substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; in China's situation, GDP at purchasing power parity provides the best measure for comparing output across countries
$2.522 billion (2019 est.)
Credit ratingsFitch rating: A+ (2007)

Moody's rating: A1 (2017)

Standard & Poors rating: A+ (2017)
Moody's rating: B3 (2017)

Standard & Poors rating: B- (2017)
Ease of Doing Business Index scoresOverall score: 77.9 (2020)

Starting a Business score: 94.1 (2020)

Trading score: 86.5 (2020)

Enforcement score: 80.9 (2020)
Overall score: 61.3 (2020)

Starting a Business score: 93.2 (2020)

Trading score: 60.9 (2020)

Enforcement score: 60.7 (2020)
Taxes and other revenues21.3% (of GDP) (2017 est.)31.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)-3.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)-1.5% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
GDP - composition, by end usehousehold consumption: 39.1% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 14.5% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 42.7% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 1.7% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 20.4% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -18.4% (2017 est.)
household consumption: 98.4% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 13.3% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 11.7% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 2.5% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 10.7% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -36.6% (2017 est.)
Gross national saving44.2% of GDP (2019 est.)

44.4% of GDP (2018 est.)

45% of GDP (2017 est.)
24.9% of GDP (2017 est.)

15.4% of GDP (2016 est.)

11.8% of GDP (2015 est.)

Source: CIA Factbook