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Turkmenistan vs. Kazakhstan

Economy

TurkmenistanKazakhstan
Economy - overview

Turkmenistan is largely a desert country with intensive agriculture in irrigated oases and significant natural gas and oil resources. The two largest crops are cotton, most of which is produced for export, and wheat, which is domestically consumed. Although agriculture accounts for almost 8% of GDP, it continues to employ nearly half of the country's workforce. Hydrocarbon exports, the bulk of which is natural gas going to China, make up 25% of Turkmenistan's GDP. Ashgabat has explored two initiatives to bring gas to new markets: a trans-Caspian pipeline that would carry gas to Europe and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Both face major financing, political, and security hurdles and are unlikely to be completed soon.

Turkmenistan's autocratic governments under presidents NIYAZOW (1991-2006) and BERDIMUHAMEDOW (since 2007) have made little progress improving the business climate, privatizing state-owned industries, combatting corruption, and limiting economic development outside the energy sector. High energy prices in the mid-2000s allowed the government to undertake extensive development and social spending, including providing heavy utility subsidies.

Low energy prices since mid-2014 are hampering Turkmenistan's economic growth and reducing government revenues. The government has cut subsidies in several areas, and wage arrears have increased. In January 2014, the Central Bank of Turkmenistan devalued the manat by 19%, and downward pressure on the currency continues. There is a widening spread between the official exchange rate (3.5 TMM per US dollar) and the black market exchange rate (approximately 14 TMM per US dollar). Currency depreciation and conversion restrictions, corruption, isolationist policies, and declining spending on public services have resulted in a stagnate economy that is nearing crisis. Turkmenistan claims substantial foreign currency reserves, but non-transparent data limit international institutions' ability to verify this information.

Kazakhstan's vast hydrocarbon and mineral reserves form the backbone of its economy. Geographically the largest of the former Soviet republics, excluding Russia, Kazakhstan, g possesses substantial fossil fuel reserves and other minerals and metals, such as uranium, copper, and zinc. It also has a large agricultural sector featuring livestock and grain. The government realizes that its economy suffers from an overreliance on oil and extractive industries and has made initial attempts to diversify its economy by targeting sectors like transport, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, petrochemicals and food processing for greater development and investment. It also adopted a Subsoil Code in December 2017 with the aim of increasing exploration and investment in the hydrocarbon, and particularly mining, sectors.

Kazakhstan's oil production and potential is expanding rapidly. A $36.8 billion expansion of Kazakhstan's premiere Tengiz oil field by Chevron-led Tengizchevroil should be complete in 2022. Meanwhile, the super-giant Kashagan field finally launched production in October 2016 after years of delay and an estimated $55 billion in development costs. Kazakhstan's total oil production in 2017 climbed 10.5%.

Kazakhstan is landlocked and depends on Russia to export its oil to Europe. It also exports oil directly to China. In 2010, Kazakhstan joined Russia and Belarus to establish a Customs Union in an effort to boost foreign investment and improve trade. The Customs Union evolved into a Single Economic Space in 2012 and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in January 2015. Supported by rising commodity prices, Kazakhstan's exports to EAEU countries increased 30.2% in 2017. Imports from EAEU countries grew by 24.1%.

The economic downturn of its EAEU partner, Russia, and the decline in global commodity prices from 2014 to 2016 contributed to an economic slowdown in Kazakhstan. In 2014, Kazakhstan devalued its currency, the tenge, and announced a stimulus package to cope with its economic challenges. In the face of further decline in the ruble, oil prices, and the regional economy, Kazakhstan announced in 2015 it would replace its currency band with a floating exchange rate, leading to a sharp fall in the value of the tenge. Since reaching a low of 391 to the dollar in January 2016, the tenge has modestly appreciated, helped by somewhat higher oil prices. While growth slowed to about 1% in both 2015 and 2016, a moderate recovery in oil prices, relatively stable inflation and foreign exchange rates, and the start of production at Kashagan helped push 2017 GDP growth to 4%.

Despite some positive institutional and legislative changes in the last several years, investors remain concerned about corruption, bureaucracy, and arbitrary law enforcement, especially at the regional and municipal levels. An additional concern is the condition of the country's banking sector, which suffers from poor asset quality and a lack of transparency. Investors also question the potentially negative effects on the economy of a contested presidential succession as Kazakhstan's first president, Nursultan NAZARBAYEV, turned 77 in 2017.

GDP (purchasing power parity)$86.858 billion (2018 est.)

$103.7 billion (2017 est.)

$81.787 billion (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars
$487.868 billion (2019 est.)

$466.859 billion (2018 est.)

$448.472 billion (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
GDP - real growth rate6.5% (2017 est.)

6.2% (2016 est.)

6.5% (2015 est.)
6.13% (2019 est.)

4.41% (2018 est.)

4.38% (2017 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)$14,845 (2018 est.)

$18,200 (2017 est.)

$14,205 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2017 dollars
$26,351 (2019 est.)

$25,544 (2018 est.)

$24,863 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
GDP - composition by sectoragriculture: 7.5% (2017 est.)

industry: 44.9% (2017 est.)

services: 47.7% (2017 est.)
agriculture: 4.7% (2017 est.)

industry: 34.1% (2017 est.)

services: 61.2% (2017 est.)
Population below poverty line0.2% (2012 est.)4.3% (2018 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage sharelowest 10%: 2.6%

highest 10%: 31.7% (1998)
lowest 10%: 4.2%

highest 10%: 23.3% (2016)
Inflation rate (consumer prices)8% (2017 est.)

3.6% (2016 est.)
5.2% (2019 est.)

6% (2018 est.)

7.3% (2017 est.)
Labor force2.305 million (2013 est.)8.685 million (2020 est.)
Labor force - by occupationagriculture: 48.2%

industry: 14%

services: 37.8% (2004 est.)
agriculture: 18.1%

industry: 20.4%

services: 61.6% (2017 est.)
Unemployment rate11% (2014 est.)

10.6% (2013)
4.8% (2019 est.)

4.85% (2018 est.)
Distribution of family income - Gini index40.8 (1998)27.5 (2017 est.)

31.5 (2003)
Budgetrevenues: 5.657 billion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 6.714 billion (2017 est.)
revenues: 35.48 billion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 38.3 billion (2017 est.)
Industriesnatural gas, oil, petroleum products, textiles, food processingoil, coal, iron ore, manganese, chromite, lead, zinc, copper, titanium, bauxite, gold, silver, phosphates, sulfur, uranium, iron and steel; tractors and other agricultural machinery, electric motors, construction materials
Industrial production growth rate1% (2017 est.)5.8% (2017 est.)
Agriculture - productsmilk, wheat, cotton, tomatoes, potatoes, watermelons, grapes, sugar beet, beef, ricewheat, milk, potatoes, barley, watermelons, melons, linseed, onions, maize, sunflower seed
Exports$7.458 billion (2017 est.)

$6.987 billion (2016 est.)
$76.455 billion (2019 est.)

$74.809 billion (2018 est.)

$68.256 billion (2017 est.)
Exports - commoditiesnatural gas, refined petroleum, crude petroleum, cotton fibers, fertilizers (2019)crude petroleum, natural gas, copper, iron alloys, radioactive chemicals (2019)
Exports - partnersChina 82% (2019)China 13%, Italy 12%, Russia 10%, Netherlands 7%, France 6%, South Korea 5% (2019)
Imports$4.571 billion (2017 est.)

$5.215 billion (2016 est.)
$69.117 billion (2019 est.)

$61.933 billion (2018 est.)

$58.099 billion (2017 est.)
Imports - commoditiesiron products, harvesting machinery, packaged medicines, broadcasting equipment, tractors (2019)packaged medicines, natural gas, cars, broadcasting equipment, aircraft (2019)
Imports - partnersTurkey 25%, Russia 18%, China 14%, Germany 6% (2019)Russia 34%, China 24% (2019)
Debt - external$539.4 million (31 December 2017 est.)

$425.3 million (31 December 2016 est.)
$159.351 billion (2019 est.)

$163.73 billion (2018 est.)
Exchange ratesTurkmenistani manat (TMM) per US dollar -

4.125 (2017 est.)

3.5 (2016 est.)

3.5 (2015 est.)

3.5 (2014 est.)

2.85 (2013 est.)
tenge (KZT) per US dollar -

420.0049 (2020 est.)

385.9248 (2019 est.)

370.4648 (2018 est.)

221.73 (2014 est.)

179.19 (2013 est.)
Fiscal yearcalendar yearcalendar year
Public debt28.8% of GDP (2017 est.)

24.1% of GDP (2016 est.)
20.8% of GDP (2017 est.)

19.7% of GDP (2016 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold$24.91 billion (31 December 2017 est.)

$25.05 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$30.75 billion (31 December 2017 est.)

$29.53 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
Current Account Balance-$4.359 billion (2017 est.)

-$7.207 billion (2016 est.)
-$7.206 billion (2019 est.)

-$138 million (2018 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate)$40.819 billion (2018 est.)$181.194 billion (2019 est.)
Taxes and other revenues14.9% (of GDP) (2017 est.)22.3% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)-2.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)-1.8% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
GDP - composition, by end usehousehold consumption: 50% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 10% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 28.2% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 0% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 26.2% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -14.3% (2017 est.)
household consumption: 53.2% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 11.1% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 22.5% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 4.8% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 35.4% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -27.1% (2017 est.)
Gross national saving23.9% of GDP (2017 est.)

24.3% of GDP (2016 est.)

18.9% of GDP (2015 est.)
26.6% of GDP (2019 est.)

27.8% of GDP (2018 est.)

25.9% of GDP (2017 est.)

Source: CIA Factbook