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Poland vs. Belarus

Economy

PolandBelarus
Economy - overview

Poland has the sixth-largest economy in the EU and has long had a reputation as a business-friendly country with largely sound macroeconomic policies. Since 1990, Poland has pursued a policy of economic liberalization. During the 2008-09 economic slowdown Poland was the only EU country to avoid a recession, in part because of the government's loose fiscal policy combined with a commitment to rein in spending in the medium-term Poland is the largest recipient of EU development funds and their cyclical allocation can significantly impact the rate of economic growth.

The Polish economy performed well during the 2014-17 period, with the real GDP growth rate generally exceeding 3%, in part because of increases in government social spending that have helped to accelerate consumer-driven growth. However, since 2015, Poland has implemented new business restrictions and taxes on foreign-dominated economic sectors, including banking and insurance, energy, and healthcare, that have dampened investor sentiment and has increased the government's ownership of some firms. The government reduced the retirement age in 2016 and has had mixed success in introducing new taxes and boosting tax compliance to offset the increased costs of social spending programs and relieve upward pressure on the budget deficit. Some credit ratings agencies estimate that Poland during the next few years is at risk of exceeding the EU's 3%-of-GDP limit on budget deficits, possibly impacting its access to future EU funds. Poland's economy is projected to perform well in the next few years in part because of an anticipated cyclical increase in the use of its EU development funds and continued, robust household spending.

Poland faces several systemic challenges, which include addressing some of the remaining deficiencies in its road and rail infrastructure, business environment, rigid labor code, commercial court system, government red tape, and burdensome tax system, especially for entrepreneurs. Additional long-term challenges include diversifying Poland's energy mix, strengthening investments in innovation, research, and development, as well as stemming the outflow of educated young Poles to other EU member states, especially in light of a coming demographic contraction due to emigration, persistently low fertility rates, and the aging of the Solidarity-era baby boom generation.

As part of the former Soviet Union, Belarus had a relatively well-developed industrial base, but it is now outdated, inefficient, and dependent on subsidized Russian energy and preferential access to Russian markets. The country's agricultural base is largely dependent on government subsidies. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, an initial burst of economic reforms included privatization of state enterprises, creation of private property rights, and the acceptance of private entrepreneurship, but by 1994 the reform effort dissipated. About 80% of industry remains in state hands, and foreign investment has virtually disappeared. Several businesses have been renationalized. State-owned entities account for 70-75% of GDP, and state banks make up 75% of the banking sector.

Economic output declined for several years following the break-up of the Soviet Union, but revived in the mid-2000s. Belarus has only small reserves of crude oil and imports crude oil and natural gas from Russia at subsidized, below market, prices. Belarus derives export revenue by refining Russian crude and selling it at market prices. Russia and Belarus have had serious disagreements over prices and quantities for Russian energy. Beginning in early 2016, Russia claimed Belarus began accumulating debt - reaching $740 million by April 2017 - for paying below the agreed price for Russian natural gas and Russia cut back its export of crude oil as a result of the debt. In April 2017, Belarus agreed to pay its gas debt and Russia restored the flow of crude.

New non-Russian foreign investment has been limited in recent years, largely because of an unfavorable financial climate. In 2011, a financial crisis lead to a nearly three-fold devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. The Belarusian economy has continued to struggle under the weight of high external debt servicing payments and a trade deficit. In mid-December 2014, the devaluation of the Russian ruble triggered a near 40% devaluation of the Belarusian ruble.

Belarus's economy stagnated between 2012 and 2016, widening productivity and income gaps between Belarus and neighboring countries. Budget revenues dropped because of falling global prices on key Belarusian export commodities. Since 2015, the Belarusian government has tightened its macro-economic policies, allowed more flexibility to its exchange rate, taken some steps towards price liberalization, and reduced subsidized government lending to state-owned enterprises. Belarus returned to modest growth in 2017, largely driven by improvement of external conditions and Belarus issued sovereign debt for the first time since 2011, which provided the country with badly-needed liquidity, and issued $600 million worth of Eurobonds in February 2018, predominantly to US and British investors.

GDP (purchasing power parity)$1,261,433,000,000 (2019 est.)

$1,206,640,000,000 (2018 est.)

$1,145,323,000,000 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
$181.286 billion (2019 est.)

$179.098 billion (2018 est.)

$173.63 billion (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
GDP - real growth rate4.55% (2019 est.)

5.36% (2018 est.)

4.83% (2017 est.)
1.22% (2019 est.)

3.17% (2018 est.)

2.53% (2017 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)$33,221 (2019 est.)

$31,775 (2018 est.)

$30,160 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
$19,150 (2019 est.)

$18,885 (2018 est.)

$18,280 (2017 est.)

note: data are in 2010 dollars
GDP - composition by sectoragriculture: 2.4% (2017 est.)

industry: 40.2% (2017 est.)

services: 57.4% (2017 est.)
agriculture: 8.1% (2017 est.)

industry: 40.8% (2017 est.)

services: 51.1% (2017 est.)
Population below poverty line15.4% (2018 est.)5% (2019 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage sharelowest 10%: 3%

highest 10%: 23.9% (2015 est.)
lowest 10%: 3.8%

highest 10%: 21.9% (2008)
Inflation rate (consumer prices)2.1% (2019 est.)

1.7% (2018 est.)

2% (2017 est.)
5.6% (2019 est.)

4.8% (2018 est.)

6% (2017 est.)
Labor force9.561 million (2020 est.)4.381 million (2016 est.)
Labor force - by occupationagriculture: 11.5%

industry: 30.4%

services: 57.6% (2015)
agriculture: 9.7%

industry: 23.4%

services: 66.8% (2015 est.)
Unemployment rate5.43% (2019 est.)

6.08% (2018 est.)
0.8% (2017 est.)

1% (2016 est.)

note: official registered unemployed; large number of underemployed workers
Distribution of family income - Gini index29.7 (2017 est.)

33.7 (2008)
25.2 (2018 est.)

21.7 (1998)
Budgetrevenues: 207.5 billion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 216.2 billion (2017 est.)
revenues: 22.15 billion (2017 est.)

expenditures: 20.57 billion (2017 est.)
Industriesmachine building, iron and steel, coal mining, chemicals, shipbuilding, food processing, glass, beverages, textilesmetal-cutting machine tools, tractors, trucks, earthmovers, motorcycles, synthetic fibers, fertilizer, textiles, refrigerators, washing machines and other household appliances
Industrial production growth rate7.5% (2017 est.)5.6% (2017 est.)
Agriculture - productsmilk, sugar beet, wheat, potatoes, triticale, maize, barley, apples, mixed grains, ryemilk, potatoes, sugar beet, wheat, triticale, barley, maize, rye, rapeseed, poultry
Exports$394.848 billion (2019 est.)

$375.525 billion (2018 est.)

$351.125 billion (2017 est.)
$28.65 billion (2017 est.)

$22.98 billion (2016 est.)
Exports - commoditiescars and vehicle parts, seats, furniture, computers, video displays (2019)refined petroleum, fertilizers, cheese, delivery trucks, crude petroleum (2019)
Exports - partnersGermany 27%, Czechia 6%, United Kingdom 6%, France 6%, Italy 5% (2019)Russia 42%, Ukraine 13%, United Kingdom 7% (2019)
Imports$364.993 billion (2019 est.)

$353.423 billion (2018 est.)

$328.919 billion (2017 est.)
$31.58 billion (2017 est.)

$25.61 billion (2016 est.)
Imports - commoditiescars and vehicle parts, crude petroleum,  packaged medicines, broadcasting equipment, office machinery/parts (2019)crude petroleum, natural gas, cars and vehicle parts, packaged medicines, broadcasting equipment (2019)
Imports - partnersGermany 25%, China 10%, Italy 5%, Netherlands 5% (2019)Russia 57%, China 7%, Poland 5%, Germany 5%, Ukraine 5% (2019)
Debt - external$351.77 billion (2019 est.)

$373.721 billion (2018 est.)
$39.847 billion (2019 est.)

$39.297 billion (2018 est.)
Exchange rateszlotych (PLN) per US dollar -

3.6684 (2020 est.)

3.8697 (2019 est.)

3.76615 (2018 est.)

3.7721 (2014 est.)

3.1538 (2013 est.)
Belarusian rubles (BYB/BYR) per US dollar -

1.9 (2017 est.)

2 (2016 est.)

2 (2015 est.)

15,926 (2014 est.)

10,224.1 (2013 est.)
Fiscal yearcalendar yearcalendar year
Public debt50.6% of GDP (2017 est.)

54.2% of GDP (2016 est.)

note: data cover general government debt and include debt instruments issued (or owned) by government entities other than the treasury; the data include treasury debt held by foreign entities, the data include subnational entities, as well as intragovernmental debt; intragovernmental debt consists of treasury borrowings from surpluses in the social funds, such as for retirement, medical care, and unemployment; debt instruments for the social funds are not sold at public auctions
53.4% of GDP (2017 est.)

53.5% of GDP (2016 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold$113.3 billion (31 December 2017 est.)

$114.4 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$7.315 billion (31 December 2017 est.)

$4.927 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
Current Account Balance$2.92 billion (2019 est.)

-$7.52 billion (2018 est.)
-$931 million (2017 est.)

-$1.669 billion (2016 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate)$595.72 billion (2019 est.)$63.168 billion (2019 est.)
Credit ratingsFitch rating: A- (2007)

Moody's rating: A2 (2002)

Standard & Poors rating: A- (2018)
Fitch rating: B (2018)

Moody's rating: B3 (2018)

Standard & Poors rating: B (2017)
Ease of Doing Business Index scoresOverall score: 76.4 (2020)

Starting a Business score: 82.9 (2020)

Trading score: 100 (2020)

Enforcement score: 64.4 (2020)
Overall score: 74.3 (2020)

Starting a Business score: 93.5 (2020)

Trading score: 96.5 (2020)

Enforcement score: 67.6 (2020)
Taxes and other revenues39.5% (of GDP) (2017 est.)40.7% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)-1.7% (of GDP) (2017 est.)2.9% (of GDP) (2017 est.)
Unemployment, youth ages 15-24total: 9.9%

male: 9.6%

female: 10.3% (2019 est.)
total: 10.2%

male: 12.9%

female: 7.3% (2019 est.)
GDP - composition, by end usehousehold consumption: 58.6% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 17.7% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 17.7% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 2% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 54% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -49.9% (2017 est.)
household consumption: 54.8% (2017 est.)

government consumption: 14.6% (2017 est.)

investment in fixed capital: 24.9% (2017 est.)

investment in inventories: 5.7% (2017 est.)

exports of goods and services: 67% (2017 est.)

imports of goods and services: -67% (2017 est.)
Gross national saving20.1% of GDP (2019 est.)

19.4% of GDP (2018 est.)

19.5% of GDP (2017 est.)
27.8% of GDP (2019 est.)

29.2% of GDP (2018 est.)

28% of GDP (2017 est.)

Source: CIA Factbook