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China vs. India

Economy

ChinaIndia
Economy - overview"Since the late 1970s, China has moved from a closed, centrally planned system to a more market-oriented one that plays a major global role. China has implemented reforms in a gradualist fashion, resulting in efficiency gains that have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978. Reforms began with the phase-out of collectivized agriculture, and expanded to include the gradual liberalization of prices, fiscal decentralization, increased autonomy for state enterprises, growth of the private sector, development of stock markets and a modern banking system, and opening to foreign trade and investment. China continues to pursue an industrial policy, state-support of key sectors, and a restrictive investment regime. Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis that adjusts for price differences, China in 2016 stood as the largest economy in the world, surpassing the US in 2014 for the first time in modern history. China became the world's largest exporter in 2010, and the largest trading nation in 2013. Still, China's per capita income is below the world average.

After keeping its currency tightly linked to the US dollar for years, China in July 2005 moved to an exchange rate system that references a basket of currencies. From mid-2005 to late 2008, the renminbi appreciated more than 20% against the US dollar, but the exchange rate remained virtually pegged to the dollar from the onset of the global financial crisis until June 2010, when Beijing allowed resumption of a gradual liberalization. In 2015, the People’s Bank of China announced it would continue to carefully push for full convertibility of the renminbi after the currency was accepted as part of the IMF’s special drawing rights basket. After engaging in one-way, large-scale intervention to resist appreciation of the RMB for a decade, China’s 2016 intervention in foreign exchange markets has sought to prevent a rapid RMB depreciation that would have negative consequences for the United States, China, and the global economy.

China’s economic growth has slowed since 2011. The Chinese Government faces numerous economic challenges including: (a) reducing its high domestic savings rate and correspondingly low domestic household consumption; (b) servicing its high corporate debt burdens to maintain financial stability (c) facilitating higher-wage job opportunities for the aspiring middle class, including rural migrants and college graduates, while maintaining competitiveness; (d) dampening speculative investment in the real estate sector; (e) reducing industrial overcapacity; and (f) raising productivity growth rates through the more efficient allocation of capital. Economic development has progressed further in coastal provinces than in the interior, and by 2016 more than 169.3 million migrant workers and their dependents had relocated to urban areas to find work. One consequence of China’s population control policy known as the “one-child policy”—which was relaxed in 2016 to permit all families to have two children-- is that China is now one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world. Deterioration in the environment - notably air pollution, soil erosion, and the steady fall of the water table, especially in the North - is another long-term problem. China continues to lose arable land because of erosion and urbanization. The Chinese government is seeking to add energy production capacity from sources other than coal and oil, focusing on natural gas, nuclear, and clean energy development. In 2016, China ratified the Paris Agreement, a multilateral agreement to combat climate change, and committed to peak its carbon dioxide emissions between 2025 and 2030.

The government's 13th Five-Year Plan, unveiled in March 2016, emphasizes the need to increase innovation and boost domestic consumption to make the economy less dependent on government investment, exports, and heavy industry. However, China has made only marginal progress toward these rebalancing goals. Under President XI Jinping, Beijing has signaled its understanding that China's long-term economic health depends on giving the market a more decisive role in allocating resources, but has moved slowly on market-oriented reforms because of potential negative consequences for stability and short-term economic growth. He has also increased state-control over key sectors and Party control over State Owned Enterprises. Chinese leaders in 2010 pledged to double China’s GDP by 2020, and the 13th Five Year Plan includes annual economic growth targets of at least 6.5% through 2020 to achieve that goal. In recent years, China has renewed its support for state-owned enterprises in sectors considered important to ""economic security,"" explicitly looking to foster globally competitive industries. Chinese leaders also have undermined some market-oriented reforms by reaffirming the “dominant” role of the state in the economy, a stance that threatens to discourage private initiative and make the economy less efficient over time.
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India's diverse economy encompasses traditional village farming, modern agriculture, handicrafts, a wide range of modern industries, and a multitude of services. Slightly less than half of the work force is in agriculture, but services are the major source of economic growth, accounting for nearly two-thirds of India's output but employing less than one-third of its labor force. India has capitalized on its large educated English-speaking population to become a major exporter of information technology services, business outsourcing services, and software workers.

India is developing into an open-market economy, yet traces of its past autarkic policies remain. Economic liberalization measures, including industrial deregulation, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and reduced controls on foreign trade and investment, began in the early 1990s and served to accelerate the country's growth, which averaged nearly 7% per year from 1997 to 2016. India's economic growth slowed in 2011 because of a decline in investment caused by high interest rates, rising inflation, and investor pessimism about the government's commitment to further economic reforms and about slow world growth. Rising macroeconomic imbalances in India and improving economic conditions in Western countries led investors to shift capital away from India, prompting a sharp depreciation of the rupee.

Growth rebounded in 2014 through 2016, exceeding 7% each year. Investors’ perceptions of India improved in early 2014, due to a reduction of the current account deficit and expectations of post-election economic reform, resulting in a surge of inbound capital flows and stabilization of the rupee. Since the election, the government has passed an important goods and services tax bill and raised foreign direct investment caps in some sectors but most economic reforms have focused on administrative and governance changes largely because the ruling party remains a minority in India’s upper house of Parliament, which must approve most bills. Despite a high growth rate compared to the rest of the world, in 2015 and 2016, India’s government-owned banks faced mounting bad debt, resulting in low credit growth and restrained economic growth.

The outlook for India's long-term growth is moderately positive due to a young population and corresponding low dependency ratio, healthy savings and investment rates, and increasing integration into the global economy. However, long-term challenges remain significant, including: India's discrimination against women and girls, an inefficient power generation and distribution system, ineffective enforcement of intellectual property rights, decades-long civil litigation dockets, inadequate transport and agricultural infrastructure, limited non-agricultural employment opportunities, high spending and poorly targeted subsidies, inadequate availability of quality basic and higher education, and accommodating rural-to-urban migration.
GDP (purchasing power parity)$21.14 trillion (2016 est.)
$19.82 trillion (2015 est.)
$18.34 trillion (2014 est.)
note: data are in 2016 dollars
$8.721 trillion (2016 est.)
$8.103 trillion (2015 est.)
$7.534 trillion (2014 est.)
note: data are in 2016 dollars
GDP - real growth rate6.7% (2016 est.)
6.9% (2015 est.)
7.3% (2014 est.)
7.6% (2016 est.)
7.6% (2015 est.)
7.2% (2014 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP)$14,600 (2016 est.)
$14,500 (2015 est.)
$13,400 (2014 est.)
note: data are in 2016 dollars
$6,700 (2016 est.)
$6,300 (2015 est.)
$5,900 (2014 est.)
note: data are in 2016 dollars
GDP - composition by sectoragriculture: 8.6%
industry: 39.8%
services: 51.6%
(2016 est.)
agriculture: 16.5%
industry: 29.8%
services: 45.4% (2016 est.)
Population below poverty line3.3%
note: in 2011, China set a new poverty line at RMB 2300 (approximately US $400)
(2016 est.)
21.9% (2011 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage sharelowest 10%: 2.1%
highest 10%: 31.4%
note: data are for urban households only (2012)
lowest 10%: 3.6%
highest 10%: 29.8% (2011)
Inflation rate (consumer prices)2% (2016 est.)
1.4% (2015 est.)
5.2% (2016 est.)
4.9% (2015 est.)
Labor force907.5 million
note: by the end of 2012, China's population at working age (15-64 years) was 1.004 billion (2016 est.)
513.7 million (2016 est.)
Labor force - by occupationagriculture: 28.3%
industry: 29.3%
services: 42.4%
(2015 est.)
agriculture: 47%
industry: 22%
services: 31% (FY 2014 est.)
Unemployment rate4% (2016 est.)
4.1% (2015 est.)
note: data are for registered urban unemployment, which excludes private enterprises and migrants
5% (FY 2016 est.)
4.9% (FY 2014 est.)
Distribution of family income - Gini index46.5 (2016 est.)
46.2 (2015 est.)
35.2 (2011)
37.8 (1997)
Budgetrevenues: $2.3 trillion
expenditures: $2.708 trillion (2016 est.)
revenues: $273.3 billion
expenditures: $273.3 billion (FY 2016 est.)
Industriesworld leader in gross value of industrial output; mining and ore processing, iron, steel, aluminum, and other metals, coal; machine building; armaments; textiles and apparel; petroleum; cement; chemicals; fertilizers; consumer products (including footwear, toys, and electronics); food processing; transportation equipment, including automobiles, rail cars and locomotives, ships, aircraft; telecommunications equipment, commercial space launch vehicles, satellites
textiles, chemicals, food processing, steel, transportation equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery, software, pharmaceuticals
Industrial production growth rate6% (2016 est.)
7.4% (2016 est.)
Agriculture - productsworld leader in gross value of agricultural output; rice, wheat, potatoes, corn, tobacco, peanuts, tea, apples, cotton, pork, mutton, eggs; fish, shrimp
rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, lentils, onions, potatoes; dairy products, sheep, goats, poultry; fish
Exports$2.098 trillion (2016 est.)
$2.143 trillion (2015 est.)
$262.3 billion (FY 2016 est.)
$267.9 billion (2015 est.)
Exports - commoditieselectrical and other machinery, including data processing equipment, apparel, furniture, textiles, integrated circuits
petroleum products, precious stones, vehicles, machinery, iron and steel, chemicals, pharmaceutical products, cereals, apparel
Exports - partnersUS 18%, Hong Kong 14.6%, Japan 6%, South Korea 4.5% (2015)
US 15.2%, UAE 11.4%, Hong Kong 4.6% (1 January - 30 September 2016)
Imports$1.587 trillion (2016 est.)
$1.576 trillion (2015 est.)
$381 billion (FY2016 est.)
$394.1 billion (2015 est.)
Imports - commoditieselectrical and other machinery, oil and mineral fuels; nuclear reactor, boiler, and machinery components; optical and medical equipment, metal ores, motor vehicles; soybeans
crude oil, precious stones, machinery, chemicals, fertilizer, plastics, iron and steel
Imports - partnersSouth Korea 10.9%, US 9%, Japan 8.9%, Germany 5.5%, Australia 4.1% (2015)
China 15.7%, Saudi Arabia 5.4%, Switzerland 5.4%, US 5.3%, UAE 5.2% (1 January - 30 September 2016)
Debt - external$1.421 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.418 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$507 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$480.8 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Exchange ratesRenminbi yuan (RMB) per US dollar -
6.626 (2016 est.)
6.2275 (2015 est.)
6.2275 (2014 est.)
6.1958 (2013 est.)
6.3123 (2012 est.)
Indian rupees (INR) per US dollar -
68.3 (2016 est.)
64.152 (2015 est.)
64.152 (2014 est.)
61.03 (2013 est.)
53.44 (2012 est.)
Fiscal yearcalendar year
1 April - 31 March
Public debt16.1% of GDP (2016 est.)
15.5% of GDP (2015 est.)
note: official data; data cover both central government debt and local government debt, which China's National Audit Office estimated at RMB 10.72 trillion (approximately US$1.66 trillion) in 2011; data exclude policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans
52.3% of GDP (2016 est.)
52.4% of GDP (2015 est.)
note: data cover central government debt, and exclude debt instruments issued (or owned) by government entities other than the treasury; the data include treasury debt held by foreign entities; the data exclude debt issued by subnational entities, as well as intra-governmental debt; intra-governmental debt consists of treasury borrowings from surpluses in the social funds, such as for retirement, medical care, and unemployment; debt instruments for the social funds are not sold at public auctions
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold$3.01 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$3.405 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$359.1 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$351.6 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Current Account Balance$196.4 billion (2016 est.)
$304.2 billion (2015 est.)
-$20.86 billion (2016 est.)
-$22.09 billion (2015 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate)$10.73 trillion (2016 est.)
note: because China's exchange rate is determined by fiat rather than by market forces, the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China's output; GDP at the official exchange rate substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; in China's situation, GDP at purchasing power parity provides the best measure for comparing output across countries
$2.251 trillion (2016 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - at home$1.458 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.221 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$453.2 billion (30 September 2016 est.)
$296.8 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad$1.317 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.096 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$149 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$139 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Market value of publicly traded shares$7.321 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$8.188 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$6.005 trillion (31 December 2014 est.)
$1.516 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$1.558 trillion (31 December 2014 est.)
$1.139 trillion (31 December 2013 est.)
Central bank discount rate2.25% (31 December 2016 est.)
2.25% (31 December 2015 est.)
6.25% (31 December 2016)
7.75% (31 December 2014)
note: this is the Indian central bank's policy rate - the repurchase rate
Commercial bank prime lending rate4.35% (31 December 2016 est.)
4.35% (31 December 2015 est.)
9.3% (31 December 2016 est.)
10.01% (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of domestic credit$15.37 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$14.47 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$1.579 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.57 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of narrow money$7.015 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$6.175 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$385.9 billion (31 December 2016 est.)
$370.5 billion (31 December 2015 est.)
Stock of broad money$22.35 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$21.44 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
$1.728 trillion (31 December 2016 est.)
$1.704 trillion (31 December 2015 est.)
Taxes and other revenues21.4% of GDP (2016 est.)
12.1% of GDP (FY 2016 est.)
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-)-3% of GDP (2016 est.)
0% of GDP (FY 2016 est.)
GDP - composition, by end usehousehold consumption: 37.1%
government consumption: 14%
investment in fixed capital: 43.7%
investment in inventories: 1.6%
exports of goods and services: 22%
imports of goods and services: 18.5% (2015 est.)
household consumption: 60.8%
government consumption: 11.4%
investment in fixed capital: 27.6%
investment in inventories: 3%
exports of goods and services: 19%
imports of goods and services: -21.8% (2016 est.)
Gross national saving46% of GDP (2016 est.)
47.9% of GDP (2015 est.)
49.7% of GDP (2014 est.)
30.2% of GDP (2016 est.)
31.3% of GDP (2015 est.)
32.8% of GDP (2014 est.)

Source: CIA Factbook